If you’ve never read Paul Randal’s blog on the SQLSkills website you should check it out. Paul recently posted a stored procedure that can be used to tell which percentage of a database’s data has changed so you can determine which type of backup to take. The procedure can be scheduled and its output analyzed over time to strengthen your backup and recovery strategy (because we know that you already have one, you just need to improve upon it ).  The cool thing about code like this is that it can be bundled into other maintenance procedures and it can integrate with monitoring and maintenance tools.  For instance, you could run this procedure on a schedule with predefined diff thresholds that would flag the  appropriate type of backup job for execution.  You could then use enterprise monitoring tools like MOM or SCOM to determine the best maintenance windows to guarantee the backups run at the right time, and voila!  You’ve got the beginnings of an automated backup and recovery strategy.